A cryptography engineer's perspective on quantum computing timelines
7.6 relevance
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technical depth 9
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actionability 6
community 9
strategic 8
personal 6
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Cryptographer's quantum timeline analysis, relevant to long-term infrastructure security.
Summary
Google and Oratomic research demonstrates CRQC attacks on 256-bit elliptic curves requiring as few as 10,000 physical qubits via neutral atom connectivity. Experts Adkins/Schmieg cite a 2029 deadline while Aaronson invokes a nuclear fission analogy, indicating timelines have collapsed from decades to years. Immediate migration to post-quantum cryptography is critical, as even monthly key breaks threaten WebPKI and long-term data confidentiality.